Posted 2:43 AM by David
I hate the use of JFK! Kerry compared to Kennedy?! Wanna-be at best...In fact the only people I see ever referring to Kerry as such are the British papers...

As for your guesses of New Hampshire (to Kerry), Wisconsin (to Bush), New Mexico (to Bush), and 1 electoral vote from Maine (to Bush)...my comments: NH I agree with as Kerry might be able to sneak away enough voters in this state based on his MA connection and the fact that NH is so fickle. That and as NH is a highly-educated state, I think it will lean towards the highly-educated candidate (despite it not doing so in 2000). As for WI, I don't think so. Kerry will win in a squeker. WI has voted with the GOP since Reagan in 1984. To vote for the Duke in 1988 and then W in 2004?! Seems unlikely...Plus with about 6% undecided they would traditionally break with the challenger. You might be right in NM considering Kerry has lost (i think) close to 7 points. Though with Richardson charging hard for Kerry, it might be enough to turn the tide. Plus, look for poor hispanic voters new to the process to vote for Kerry. I see that you might be right in Maine (especially as a significant portion of that state's population is about anti-government everything and so would lean to Bush). But look at this keey number: "Among moderates, Kerry leads 54% to 36%." Rasmussen Reports.

My prediction: Florida to Bush (though close) and Ohio flipping to Kerry based on strong support by the northern liberals and the moderates based in and around Columbus.

I'll be back in town on the 25th, and we should get together sometime the following week...