Posted 10:48 PM by Todd
BASEBALL AND THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS

I just had a very disturbing thought: With a "baseball strike" appearing imminent, the time is ripe to evaluate the political consequences of this impending fiasco.

What do I mean the political consequences?

Well, specifically, the last time we had a baseball strike that wiped out the World Series was in 1994. We all know what happened that year. The incumbent party, the Democrats, were destroyed in the midterm elections, losing control of the House and Senate in a Republican rout. What is especially intriguing is that, according to public opinion analysts, the lurch to the G.O.P. that year was a by-product of the shifting allegiances of "angry white men." In other words, it was Democratic and independent men, fed up with the status quo, who caused this political earthquake.

Perhaps the cancellation of the World Series had something to do with their anger and frustration?

Could a similar dynamic be at play in 2002? Could the baseball strike become a symbol to swing voters (especially sports fans) that the country is headed in the wrong direction - and that a shake-up in political leadership is required? In that case, President Bush and his Republic party is in BIG trouble.

If there is no strike, I'd say the Republican's odds of holding the House are about 50-50. If there is a strike, I'd put them at about 25%. Yes, a lot is at stake.

Fear the wrath of the "Angry White Man" Part II.

-Todd