Posted 4:36 PM by Daniel
My senior senator has decided against running for re-election in 2006.

Mark Dayton announced he will not seek another term in the United States Senate. Dayton was elected in 2000, beating out incumbent Republican Rod Grams, who was a first term senator, elected in 1994.

Dayton spent approximately $12 million of his own fortune to run in 2000. In his announcement, Dayton said he would absolutely hate all the fundraising he would have to do this time around to run (having depleted most of his fortune in the previous campaign).

The field is now wide open for this seat. The DFL has an opportunity to put some fresh blood on the ballot while the GOP is likely to go with Congressman Kennedy (who represents the district I live in). Rod Grams has expressed interest, but since he lost to Dayton in 2000 I don't know if the party brass would throw their support to him.

I must say, I think 2006 will see Minnesota in the spotlight once again due to this Senate race. It brings such joy to my heart to think that my state is important! :)

This is Dan Gates with Weiner News Service reporting live from the Star of the North. Back to you, Todd.

Posted 8:13 PM by Todd
THIS IS IT

Bush will win. Why? See my article "Character Matters."

Popular Vote: Bush 50%, Kerry 48%, Nader 1%

Electoral Vote: Bush 286, Kerry 252

The only states I have switching from Red to Blue from 2000 are New Mexico and Iowa (to Bush) and New Hampshire (to Kerry).

Bonus: Here is each state and the margin of victory for each candidate:

Alabama B+20
Alaska B+27
Arizona B+9
Arkansas B+8
California K+9
Colorado B+6
Connecticut K+13
Delaware K+9
Florida B+1
Georgia B+15
Hawaii K+3
Idaho B+28
Illinois K+12
Indiana B+17
Iowa B+2
Kansas B+22
Kentucky B+17
Louisiana B+12
Maine K+8
Maryland K+13
Mass. K+30
Michigan K+3
Minnesota K+1
Mississippi B+19
Missouri B+5
Montana B+20
Nebraska B+31
Nevada B+2
New Hamp. K+1
New Jersey K+8
New Mexico B+3
New York K+18
N. Carolina B+11
N. Dakota B+23
Ohio B+2
Oklahoma B+30
Oregon K+5
Penn. K+2
Rhode Isl. K+25
S. Carolina B+18
S. Dakota B+21
Tennessee B+14
Texas B+23
Utah B+42
Vermont K+14
Virginia B+8
Washington K+8
W. Virginia B+9
Wisconsin K+1
Wyoming B+35

I expect the GOP to pick up a net of 3 Senate seats, seizing North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Louisiana, and South Dakota from the Democrats while losing Colorado, Illinois, and Alaska.

Bonus: Here is the winner and margin of victory in the 8 tightest contests:

Alaska: Knowles(D) +3
Colorado: Salazar(D) +6
Florida: Martinez(R) +1
Louisiana: Vitter(R) +6
N. Carolina: Burr(R) +2
Oklahoma: Coburn(R) +5
S. Carolina: DeMint(R) +9
S. Dakota: Thune(R) +1

I haven't followed the House races much, but I expect the Republicans to pick up between 2-5 seats.

-Todd

Posted 4:55 PM by Todd
2004 BASEBALL PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

First Round:

New York def. Minnesota 3 games to 0
Ananheim def. Boston 3 games to 2

St. Louis def. Los Angeles 3 games to 0
Houston def. Atlanta 3 games to 2

LCS Round:

Anaheim def. New York 4 games to 1
Houston def. St. Louis 4 games to 1

World Series:

Anaheim def. Houston 4 games to 3

-Todd

Posted 6:30 PM by Daniel
Good day to everyone! Another campaign season is upon us. And I get to spend this one in Minnesota! I got a new job in the Twin Cities and will be moving down there shortly.

I've been reading with interest this "forgery" story about the documents used on 60 minutes. I didn't realize those old typewriters had that nice Times New-Roman font on them. What are your thoughts? I of course do not know enough to make an expert call. It would be hilarious if they turned out to be fake, though. The one thing I noticed is the dates. This font I'm typing with now does numbers like the old typewriters. 1974. 2004. 1234567890. The numbers go up and down. On the memos, they are all the same height.

Well, I'd better eat some supper. I have to get ready to move in two weeks!

Posted 11:14 PM by Todd
NFL PREDICTIONS 2004

AFC EAST:

NEW ENGLAND 12-4
MIAMI 10-6
NEW YORK 8-8
BUFFALO 7-9

AFC NORTH:

BALTIMORE 10-6
CLEVELAND 7-9
CINCINATTI 4-12
PITTSBURGH 3-13

AFC SOUTH:

TENNESSEE 10-6
INDIANAPOLIS 9-7
HOUSTON 7-9
JACKSONVILLE 6-10

AFC WEST:

OAKLAND 11-5
DENVER 9-7
KANSAS CITY 9-7
SAN DIEGO 5-11

NFC EAST:

PHILADELPHIA 12-4
WASHINGTON 10-6
DALLAS 7-9
NEW YORK 4-12

NFC NORTH:

MINNESOTA 11-5
GREEN BAY 11-5
DETROIT 8-8
CHICAGO 4-12

NFC SOUTH:

TAMPA BAY 10-6
CAROLINA 8-8
NEW ORLEANS 7-9
ATLANTA 6-10

NFC WEST:

SEATTLE 12-4
SAN FRANCISCO 8-8
ST. LOUIS 6-10
ARIZONA 3-13

NFL PLAYOFFS:

1ST ROUND:

TENNESSEE DEF. DENVER
MIAMI DEF. BALTIMORE

TAMPA BAY DEF. GREEN BAY
WASHINGTON DEF. MINNESOTA

2ND ROUND:

NEW ENGLAND DEF. MIAMI
TENNESSEE DEF. OAKLAND

PHILADELPHIA DEF. WASHINGTON
SEATTLE DEF. TAMPA BAY

CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES:

NEW ENGLAND DEF. TENNESSEE
SEATTLE DEF. PHILADELPHIA

SUPER BOWL

SEATTLE DEF. NEW ENGLAND

MVP: MATT HASSELBECK, SEATTLE
MOST THROWING TDS: MATT HASSELBECK, SEATTLE/PEYTON MANNING, INDIANAPOLIS
MOST RUSHING YARDS: AHMAN GREEN, GREEN BAY
MOST RECEIVING YARDS: RANDY MOSS, MINNESOTA

-Todd

Posted 12:26 PM by David
As you mentioned the tight New Mexico race I thought I would send you this interesting story link:

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/08/17/quest.native/

Posted 2:43 AM by David
I hate the use of JFK! Kerry compared to Kennedy?! Wanna-be at best...In fact the only people I see ever referring to Kerry as such are the British papers...

As for your guesses of New Hampshire (to Kerry), Wisconsin (to Bush), New Mexico (to Bush), and 1 electoral vote from Maine (to Bush)...my comments: NH I agree with as Kerry might be able to sneak away enough voters in this state based on his MA connection and the fact that NH is so fickle. That and as NH is a highly-educated state, I think it will lean towards the highly-educated candidate (despite it not doing so in 2000). As for WI, I don't think so. Kerry will win in a squeker. WI has voted with the GOP since Reagan in 1984. To vote for the Duke in 1988 and then W in 2004?! Seems unlikely...Plus with about 6% undecided they would traditionally break with the challenger. You might be right in NM considering Kerry has lost (i think) close to 7 points. Though with Richardson charging hard for Kerry, it might be enough to turn the tide. Plus, look for poor hispanic voters new to the process to vote for Kerry. I see that you might be right in Maine (especially as a significant portion of that state's population is about anti-government everything and so would lean to Bush). But look at this keey number: "Among moderates, Kerry leads 54% to 36%." Rasmussen Reports.

My prediction: Florida to Bush (though close) and Ohio flipping to Kerry based on strong support by the northern liberals and the moderates based in and around Columbus.

I'll be back in town on the 25th, and we should get together sometime the following week...

Posted 8:18 PM by Todd
RESPONSE TO DAVE

That would be funny, but Hawaii is such a reliably Democratic state (and Alaska, for that matter, is such a reliably Republican state), I can't envision such a scenario. It's fun to speculate, though. And while you fear waiting "until some ungodly hour in the morning for the results," imagine waiting 36 days!

I was disappointed with Halberstam's "War in a Time of Peace," but it wasn't a bad book, per se. Not at all. I just thought there was no real "story" behind the text and the few times Halberstam offered commentary, he contradicted himself (he seemed both pro-intervention and anti-antervention at the same time). Maybe he's just nuanced :)

Updated election thoughts: I'm feeling great about Bush. Best I've felt since January. I still think it'll be a very close race (49-48% in the popular vote, 290-248 in the Eelctoral Vote). The only states I'm expecting right now to switch from 2000 are New Hampshire (to Kerry), Wisconsin (to Bush), New Mexico (to Bush), and 1 electoral vote from Maine (to Bush).

Dave, how do you feel about JFK?

-Todd